
Following J.P. Morgan, another foreign institution has joined the ranks of those optimistic about A-shares in 2026.
According to a report by The Paper, Meng Lei, China equity strategist at UBS Securities, recently shared his views on China's stock strategy, noting that the profit growth rate for all A-shares in 2026 is expected to rise further from 6% this year to 8%.
Meng Lei predicts that due to the increase in nominal GDP growth and the narrowing decline in PPI, which will boost corporate revenue growth, coupled with supportive policies and the advancement of "anti-involution" efforts driving a recovery in profit margins, the profit growth rate for all A-shares in 2026 is expected to rise further from 6% this year to 8%.
Meng Lei stated that the equity risk premium in the A-share market remains higher than its historical average, while other emerging market stock markets are significantly below their long-term averages. In the medium term, factors such as incremental macro policies, accelerated profit growth in A-shares, declining risk-free interest rates, continued migration of household savings into the stock market, sustained net inflows of long-term funds, and ongoing reforms in market value management will collectively drive further valuation uplifts for the A-share market.
Previously, J.P. Morgan also released its latest views expressing optimism about A-shares' performance next year.
On November 27, J.P. Morgan released its 2026 outlook, projecting a target of 5200 points for the CSI 300 Index by the end of 2026, corresponding to a 15.9 times bottom-up calculated Wind 2026 consensus EPS of 328 yuan (a year-on-year increase of 15%).
J.P. Morgan strategists pointed out that the probability of a significant rise in Chinese stocks next year is higher than the risk of a sharp decline because "multiple incremental drivers are turning positive." They noted that next year will bring several incremental supportive factors, such as the broader application of artificial intelligence and measures to stimulate consumption, leading to an upgrade in their rating for A-shares to "overweight."
In addition, many other foreign institutions have previously expressed optimism about Chinese assets. On August 6, Kuang Zheng, Chief Investment Officer for China at HSBC Private Banking and Wealth Management, shared his investment market views, stating that he holds a positive outlook on A-shares with policy support and continues to favor sectors with high-quality growth styles.
On October 22, Liu Jinqui, Chief China Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, and others released a report stating that a slow bull market for Chinese stocks is forming, with expectations that the key MSCI China Index could rise by 30% over the next two years. This forecast is primarily driven by a 12% growth in earnings trend and a further 5%-10% revaluation potential.
