Central Bank Decision Risks Escalate

The government shutdown has disrupted the release of key economic data, leaving the Federal Reserve facing the challenge of navigating without clear visibility. The U.S. Department of Labor has delayed the release of the September employment report, while GDP and retail sales data may also be postponed.

Powell explained that although some critical government data releases are delayed due to the shutdown, the Fed regularly reviews various publicly and privately available data and gathers valuable insights through a nationwide network maintained by regional Federal Reserve Banks.

At the same time, Powell candidly acknowledged during the Q&A session, "We do not expect to make up for the missing data," Powell stated, "particularly for October. If this situation persists for some time, the circumstances could become more challenging."

Investors widely expect the Fed to maintain a moderately accommodative stance in the coming months. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group shows the market anticipates cumulative rate cuts of approximately 50 basis points by year-end. The 10-year Treasury yield recently closed at 4.03%, its lowest level in nearly six weeks, indicating rising risk-averse demand.

Some analysts believe the Fed has entered a "policy tolerance period"—allowing inflation to slightly exceed its target in exchange for a more stable employment environment.

Concluding his speech, Powell again emphasized the uncertainty in decision-making: "Our goal is not to find a perfect path but to make the least costly choice in a complex reality."