Recently, several institutions including Fullgoal Fund, China Asset Management, and Huatai-PineBridge Fund have issued announcements regarding premium risk warnings for their QDII (Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor) fund products tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index. The announcements clearly state that the trading prices of the relevant funds in the secondary market have significantly exceeded their indicative optimized portfolio value (IOPV), showing a substantial premium phenomenon. Investors are reminded to closely monitor the deviation between the trading price and the fund's actual net asset value and make investment decisions prudently.

This collective risk warning primarily targets QDII-ETF products listed and traded on domestic stock exchanges that track the Nasdaq 100 Index. As a representative index for global technology growth stocks, the Nasdaq 100 Index aggregates top international technology companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia. It possesses high growth potential and market attention in the long term and has always been one of the important tools for domestic investors to achieve global asset allocation and diversify single-market risks.

I. Analysis of the Causes of the Premium Phenomenon

The significant premium observed in these QDII funds is usually the result of multiple factors working together.

Firstly, foreign exchange quota management and the subscription mechanism are fundamental reasons. QDII funds' outward investments consume the fund manager's foreign exchange quota. When the quota is tight or subscription demand is strong, the fund manager may suspend or restrict fund subscriptions, preventing investors from subscribing to fund shares at net asset value through the primary market. At this point, the secondary market becomes the main channel for obtaining fund shares, and the situation of demand outstripping supply can easily drive up trading prices, forming a premium.

Secondly, the mismatch in trading hours between the Chinese and US markets exacerbates price uncertainty. The Nasdaq 100 Index operates during US trading hours, while domestic ETFs trade in the A-share market. When the US stock market is closed (e.g., during daytime China time), intraday trading of domestic ETFs lacks a real-time net asset value as a precise anchor. Investors trade more based on expectations for the overnight movement of US stocks. If the market generally holds an optimistic outlook for the Nasdaq's future performance, high buying enthusiasm can easily push the trading price above the net asset value in the absence of real-time NAV constraints.

Furthermore, investor sentiment and behavioral biases are key driving factors. In recent years, the strong performance of the Nasdaq market, centered on technology stocks, has attracted significant attention from domestic investors. Some investors, driven by psychology such as chasing hot sectors or FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), may rush to buy in the secondary market, ignoring the reality that the trading price has deviated from its intrinsic value. This irrational chasing of rising prices is an important contributor to high premiums.

II. Potential Risks Under High Premiums Cannot Be Ignored

For investors, buying funds with high premiums at current price levels harbors multiple risks.

The most direct risk is the capital loss resulting from the premium narrowing. The premium is essentially an "extra cost" of the trading price relative to the net asset value. Once market sentiment cools, the fund reopens subscriptions increasing share supply, or the US stock market experiences a correction, this premium may rapidly narrow or even disappear. By then, even if the net asset value of the US stock assets held by the fund remains unchanged or only experiences a slight decline, investors in the secondary market may face substantial losses due to the disappearance of the premium.

Secondly, exchange rate fluctuation risk also exists. The value of QDII funds is affected by changes in the exchange rate between Renminbi and US Dollars. While bearing the volatility risk of the US stock market itself, investors also need to pay attention to the superimposed impact of exchange rate trends on the final return.

Additionally, a high premium also implies a decrease in investment value and a lack of a safety cushion. Paying a high premium is equivalent to holding the same basket of companies at a higher cost, which not only dilutes the long-term potential return but also makes the investment more vulnerable in the face of market volatility.

III. Suggestions for Investors

Faced with such situations, investors should remain calm and adhere to the concept of value investing.

Understand the Nature of Investment: Be sure to understand that the value foundation of an ETF fund lies in the net asset value of its underlying basket of assets, not merely the trading price. When considering an investment, priority should be given to the fund's NAV performance and its long-term tracking error.

Be Wary of Premium Risk: Before trading, actively check the fund's real-time indicative NAV (IOPV) and premium rate. For products with excessively high premium rates, be highly vigilant and avoid blindly chasing prices higher.

Explore Alternative Paths: If you are optimistic about the long-term prospects of the Nasdaq 100 Index but cannot accept the current high premium, consider looking for other similar products that currently have no significant premium or can be subscribed to through the primary market, or wait until the fund's premium level returns to a reasonable range before making a decision.

Adhere to a Long-Term Perspective: Global allocation aims to diversify risks, not for short-term speculation. Investors should focus on the long-term growth potential of assets and avoid making irrational investment decisions due to short-term market sentiment fluctuations.

In summary, the collective issuance of premium risk warnings by multiple institutions this time serves as timely market risk education. It warns investors that when participating in cross-border investment, they must look beyond the appearance of trading prices and deeply understand the internal mechanisms and potential risks of the products. Only through rational analysis and prudent decision-making can one effectively manage risks and protect the safety of their assets in a complex market environment.