In today's early market analysis, Hexun Investment Advisor Gao Luming pointed out that two major pieces of news had a significant impact on the market last night. First, the U.S. September non-farm payroll data showed an unexpected surge of 119,000 new jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000. However, the unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, reaching its highest level since 2021. This data led to a decline in the market's expectation for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, with the probability dropping to less than 42%. Following the release of this news, both U.S. stocks and commodity markets experienced a plunge, which undoubtedly serves as a short-term bearish signal for global markets, including A-shares.

The second piece of news involves rumors about the domestic real estate sector. There are reports that China may introduce interest subsidies for real estate loans next year and reduce individual income tax deductions for homebuyers' mortgages. This news represents a potential positive for the real estate sector, but the market reaction has been relatively muted so far. Therefore, until there is sufficient recognition from capital, investors should not place overly high expectations on this.

Considering these two pieces of news, let's examine the potential market trends for today. Currently, there are no signs that this short-term adjustment is coming to an end, and the probability of a market decline remains high. On one hand, the diminished expectations for a Fed rate cut negatively impact global market liquidity, indirectly affecting A-shares. On the other hand, the A50 index also declined yesterday, falling by over 1%, reflecting poor feedback from heavyweight sectors and a lack of active capital movement.

From a technical perspective, the main issue facing the market is the reluctance of domestic capital to enter and take long positions. On one hand, domestic funds engage in ranking competitions every November and December, with top-performing funds beginning to realize gains and scale back their activities. On the other hand, while some funds are active, they struggle to form a cohesive force, making it difficult for the market to achieve effective gains and potentially leading to a fragmented downturn. Additionally, although there was positive news for the brokerage sector yesterday, the market reaction was lukewarm, with stocks opening higher but closing lower, indicating that capital is unwilling to drive prices up. At the same time, the trading volume failed to expand significantly, further reflecting the lack of willingness among investors to enter the market.

Overall, the market is highly likely to continue its downward adjustment in search of a bottom. However, investors need not worry excessively, as the current adjustment is paving the way for the market to bottom out and uncover a "golden pit." That said, it is not yet time for major capital to enter the market on a large scale, and investors need to wait patiently. Before institutional capital makes its move, blindly buying the dip carries significant risks—entering too early could lead to being trapped in positions, and missing subsequent opportunities would mean truly missing out. Therefore, investors should exercise restraint and wait patiently for the right timing.