On the evening of November 21, Fed official Williams released dovish signals, reigniting market debates over a December rate cut.

Analyst Adam Button stated that after Fed official Williams indicated that "given the current policy is slightly restrictive, a rate cut in the near term is still possible," U.S. stocks are receiving substantial buying support. With Williams' dovish signals, the博弈 over interest rate policy has heated up again. His remarks pushed the probability of a Fed rate cut in December to about 60% and put pressure on the U.S. dollar. Williams, as the President of the New York Fed, is a permanent voting member of the FOMC. More importantly, he, along with the Fed Chair and Vice Chair, forms the so-called "Big Three" core decision-making group, giving his policy signals greater weight.

The latest data shows that the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has begun to increase significantly.

The latest CME "FedWatch Tool" shows that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in December is 69.4%, up from just 39.1% the previous day; the probability of maintaining the current rate is 30.6%, down from 60.9% the previous day.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Milan said on Friday that if his vote becomes crucial, he would support a 25-basis-point rate cut.

Milan stated that the impact of the U.S. September non-farm payroll data is clearly dovish. The labor market data is not as strong as expected, and the CPI data is not expected to be released until after the next FOMC meeting. The current lack of data doesn't mean we lack forecasts; we should be forecast-oriented rather than data-oriented. If my vote becomes the decisive one, I will support a 25-basis-point rate cut.

However, some Fed officials continue to express skepticism about another rate cut.

Fed official Lorie Logan stated that maintaining interest rates unchanged at the Fed's December meeting might be appropriate to avoid a situation where policymakers loosen too much and then have to reverse course and hike rates.

Fed official Collins said on Friday that with the economy showing resilience, monetary policy is in the right place. The September employment data released this week was mixed, and the broader economic environment seems resilient. If the job market slows, it would affect monetary policy expectations. This suggests she remains skeptical about the necessity of another rate cut at next month's monetary policy meeting.

Regarding the vote, the Fed's December rate cut decision seems to be at a "stalemate." The market believes that Cook, who is under pressure from Trump, might become the crucial vote.

Institutional analyst Neil Irwin stated that the Fed is currently deeply divided on whether to cut rates next month. If the three leaders—Chair Powell, Vice Chair Jefferson, and New York Fed President Williams—decide to cut rates, they would certainly gain support from the three Trump-appointed governors on the committee. But that would only give them 6 votes out of the 12 voting members. They need a seventh vote for a majority. The four non-New York Reserve Bank presidents with voting rights at this meeting (Goolsbee, Collins, Musalem, and Schmid) have all expressed reservations about cutting rates.

In this situation, the votes of the other two Biden-appointed governors are crucial. One is Barr, who now seems very concerned about inflation and advocates for caution. The other official, Cook, is highly focused on the health of the labor market and has been tight-lipped about the next policy move. Previously, Trump has been trying to remove Cook, making Cook's vote the most watched by the market.