"Ultimatum" Countdown Begins: Will the White House Get Tough on Russia?

On August 6 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Affairs Whitkoff at the Kremlin. This was Whitkoff’s fifth visit to Moscow—could the dialogue lead to a breakthrough? On August 8, the "ultimatum" deadline expires. Will the White House take real action against Russia?

If No Agreement is Reached with Russia, the U.S. Has Multiple Policy Options

Chen Yu, Deputy Director of the Eurasian Institute at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR): If this round of talks fails to yield positive results, the U.S. may adopt a series of measures. Based on current information, the possible actions include the following:

Chen Yu: The first option is to directly impose tariffs on Russia. However, the impact of this measure would be limited, as annual trade between Russia and the U.S. is only about $3 billion, which is a very small volume.

Chen Yu: The second possibility is secondary sanctions against Russia’s so-called energy trade partners. Various tariff rates have been mentioned before—initially 500%, and later Trump himself suggested 100%, both of which are relatively high. Recently, the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on India for purchasing Russian oil and may impose similar tariffs on other Russian energy trade partners.

Chen Yu: Third, the U.S. may impose more targeted sanctions on specific Russian industries. For example, stricter measures could be taken against Russia’s shipping fleet, as recent reports have suggested.

Chen Yu: Of course, the U.S. may ultimately adopt a comprehensive approach, depending on its reaction after the talks.