Insufficient Funding and Manpower in Statistical Agencies

Several former BLS officials and economists stated that the decline in BLS's statistical capabilities should be blamed on the Trump administration's federal hiring freeze and long-term underinvestment. David Hiles, a senior economist at BLS who left in December last year, said, "The issue isn’t that BLS is manipulating the data, but that BLS is being manipulated."

In fact, since Trump returned to the White House and pushed for federal budget cuts and hiring freezes, the operations of the 13 major U.S. statistical agencies have faced challenges. In late February this year, the Trump administration announced the dissolution of two expert committees that collaborated with the government to produce economic statistics: the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee and the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee (FESAC). The former provided advisory opinions on certain economic data, while the latter assisted in generating data on CPI, employment, and GDP.

According to a document from the U.S. Department of Labor, BLS will face an 8% budget cut in the next fiscal year, along with an expected reduction of over 150 employees. The American Statistical Association’s (ASA) annual report, Data at Risk, shows that, in real terms, BLS’s budget for FY2024 was 17.8% lower than in 2009, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) budget decreased by 31%, and the Economic Research Service (ERS) under the USDA saw a 27% budget reduction.

It was reported that many BLS employees left under the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) layoff plan, and the reduction in staff may further exacerbate declining data quality and delays in releases.

Former BLS Commissioner Erica Groshen described BLS as more like a "factory," stating, "Every report release follows a strict schedule, specifying who does what, including quality control. Therefore, BLS needs a certain number of employees to ensure the timely release of reliable data."

Taking CPI data collection as an example, it was reported that each month, BLS staff visit stores and other businesses across the U.S. to gather and determine the prices of eggs, clothing, haircuts, and thousands of other goods and services. Some retailers only allow in-person price collection or work exclusively with familiar data collectors, which imposes certain requirements on staff numbers and job stability.

Celeste Jimenez, a BLS economist, said, "To price women’s clothing, you have to think about how many different categories there are in this segment. You need to look at the material, country of origin—it takes time to learn what to look for."

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, also noted that DOGE’s layoff policy not only affects the accuracy of government employment data but may also indirectly weaken BLS’s own statistical capabilities. He explained that government agencies typically submit employment data to BLS late, and delayed reports often lead to larger revisions. "When government employment was stable, this issue wasn’t as noticeable, but under the current downsizing of government positions, the impact of layoffs becomes particularly prominent in data revisions."

An industry insider from the aforementioned data mining agency also confirmed to First Financial that the Trump administration’s layoff policy caused "widespread unease," which has also affected statistical work. She cited examples where, due to the stark differences in policy directions between the Biden and Trump administrations, rapid shifts in priorities occurred in practice, even rendering previous work obsolete.