In July, Negotiation Room for Sub-New Homes in Shanghai’s City Center Stabilized; At Least 7 New Projects Sold Out on Launch Day

According to data from Shanghai Online Real Estate, the total transaction volume of second-hand homes (including commercial properties) in Shanghai in July was 19,337 units, showing a month-on-month decline.

"Data from Lianjia Shanghai indicates that the number of property viewings in July remained flat compared to the previous month," said Li Gen, head of the Shanghai Lianjia Research Institute. The current second-hand housing market continues its deep adjustment trend since the beginning of the year, with transaction volumes seasonally declining due to July’s high temperatures and typhoon impacts. Market demand is clearly dominated by first-time buyers, with the proportion of transactions for properties priced below 3 million yuan steadily increasing. First-time homebuyers and young families are the main drivers, as they are highly sensitive to total prices and prefer cost-effective properties in suburban areas. While diversification trends among upgraders are emerging, they have yet to form a significant market effect, likely due to the sustained popularity of high-end new projects and improved quality in the new home market, diverting demand from the resale market.

Spatial distribution data from Shanghai Centaline shows that in July, Pudong maintained the highest transaction volume in the city, followed by Baoshan in second place and Minhang in third.

A real estate agent noted, "Due to the weather, overall property viewings in July were not particularly high, but the conversion rate was relatively good. Clients who did come out to view properties were more likely to make a purchase. These buyers were mostly first-time homebuyers, often specifying certain unit types in particular neighborhoods, showing stronger sincerity."

The Shanghai Centaline Second-hand Home Price Index revealed a 1.82% month-on-month decline in July, marking the third consecutive monthly drop. Although current transaction volumes are not low, the high inventory gives buyers ample choices. Comparatively, negotiation flexibility for sub-new homes in the city center has stabilized, with only a slight short-term expansion due to seasonal factors.

Data from the 58 Anjuke platform also reflects the current market trend, with home search prices declining for three consecutive months, indicating that the "price-for-volume" strategy in the second-hand market persists. While inventory is gradually being cleared, market caution is growing, with the average listing duration increasing by 0.6 days month-on-month and 10.5 days year-on-year.

Lu Wenxi, a market analyst at Shanghai Centaline, believes that July’s decline in volume and price aligns with seasonal expectations. The current second-hand market is dominated by price-sensitive first-time buyers who remain hesitant amid market fluctuations. He predicts that after the off-season, as transaction volumes recover, price declines may narrow, with market improvements likely in September or October.

Wei Xie, Research Director at the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, pointed out that demand in the new home market is concentrated in larger four-bedroom units, while the second-hand market mainly supplies smaller one- to two-bedroom units, reflecting a "second-hand for first-time buyers, new homes for upgraders" logic. With premium land auctions and policies promoting "better housing," this trend will intensify, gradually shaping a pattern where "first-time buyers and modest upgraders opt for second-hand homes, while mid-to-high-end upgraders and luxury buyers turn to new projects."