This week, the focus of global financial markets will be on Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where the Federal Reserve will hold its annual policy symposium and provide new clues about the future path of interest rate cuts.

According to the schedule, Powell will deliver a speech at 10 PM Beijing time on Friday (August 22).

Markets expect that Powell’s speech may touch on the Fed’s future monetary policy path and topics such as the central bank’s policy independence.

As Powell prepares to speak, investors widely anticipate that the Fed will cut rates in the coming weeks. Data from the federal funds futures market shows that traders assign a probability of over 92% to a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September meeting, with at least one more cut expected by year-end.

Rate-cut expectations have already driven U.S. stocks, particularly interest-rate-sensitive sectors, to record highs. Andrew Slimmon, managing director of applied equity advisors at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, noted that recent beneficiaries of rate-cut expectations—such as homebuilders, cyclical stocks, and industrial and materials companies—are among the biggest winners in the market.

Thus, any signal from Powell that contradicts market expectations could trigger significant financial turbulence.

Slimmon stated that the strong rebound in homebuilders reflects the market’s conviction that the Fed will cut rates, so "any hint from Powell at Jackson Hole suggesting otherwise would leave the market vulnerable to a sell-off."

Morgan Stanley’s latest report suggests that at next week’s Jackson Hole symposium, the long-awaited "green light" for rate cuts may not appear. Instead, the Fed may deliver a "hawkish" message aimed at pushing back against aggressive market expectations.

The firm emphasized that the Fed’s core objective is to "keep options open," especially before the release of complete August employment and inflation data, and avoid being "backed into a corner" by the market.

The report noted: "If the Fed allows the market to price in rate cuts with near certainty, it will become very difficult to avoid cutting in September." "Not cutting would be equivalent to a rate hike," which could trigger severe market turmoil—a scenario the Fed desperately wants to avoid.

Therefore, Powell must act to "hit the brakes" on the market’s fervent rate-cut expectations, and the Jackson Hole symposium is undoubtedly the best timing.

Thus, the upcoming Jackson Hole event may be a critical "expectation management" storm orchestrated by Powell himself. His message will likely be: "Everyone needs to be patient until the next key data is released."