If Ruled Illegal, How Much Tariff Would the Trump Administration Need to Refund? The Situation May Be Complex

As of August 12, the cumulative tariff revenue in the current fiscal year has reached $142 billion.

If the U.S. Supreme Court rules that the tariffs imposed since the second term of the Trump administration are illegal, will these tariffs need to be refunded? How would they be refunded? And will additional compensation be required?

On July 7 local time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant stated that if the Supreme Court rules that the tens of billions of dollars in tariffs imposed since the beginning of President Trump’s second term are illegal, "we would have to refund about half of the tariffs, which would be terrible for the Treasury."

Experts interviewed by First Financial reporters all indicated that if the U.S. Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration in the case, it would not be as simple as just a refund. It could also involve interest and compensation issues.

However, the judgment process may be relatively complex and still requires clarification on the scope of the tariffs involved.

Guan Jian, a partner at Beijing Guangwen Law Firm, told First Financial that the current ruling by the U.S. Federal Circuit Court of Appeals on the first-instance conclusion is divided into three parts: partial affirmation, partial revocation, and remand for retrial. The "partial affirmation" part refers to the well-known ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) in the first instance, which found that the related measures taken by the U.S. President exceeded authority and were illegal. However, the appellate court considered that the "nationwide injunction requiring immediate cessation of enforcement" issued by the CIT exceeded the scope of equitable relief and was beyond the court’s authority. The court has now revoked the injunction and remanded the case to the CIT, requiring the latter to redefine the scope of relief based on relevant latest precedents from the Supreme Court.