How Much Money Needs to Be Refunded
When asked whether the U.S. government is prepared to provide refunds, Besanceney responded, "If the court decides to refund, we must do so." He added that he believes the Trump administration will win the case.
According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department reviewed by Yicai, cumulative tariff revenue for this fiscal year reached $142 billion as of August 12. This includes all tariff revenues, such as the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" and fentanyl tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), as well as Section 301 and Section 232 tariffs. However, the recent ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit only pertains to tariffs authorized under IEEPA.
It has also been reported that U.S. Customs and Border Protection has collected over $70 billion in tariff revenue from IEEPA-authorized tariffs targeting specific trade partners, which is the portion that may need to be refunded.
However, trade and customs experts have warned that if tariff refunds are involved, it would be a "logistical nightmare" and could trigger a series of legal challenges, including businesses seeking compensation.
"Refunding taxes is simple: you overpaid, you apply for a refund, and you get your money back," said Alan Wolff, former Deputy Director-General of the WTO and former U.S. trade official. "But the cost of tariffs is passed through the economic system. Your customers paid the tariffs, or your suppliers shared the burden with you by reducing costs. Therefore, determining who is truly eligible for a refund is extremely difficult."
In a recent interview with Yicai, Du Ming, Deputy Dean of Durham Law School, Professor of Transnational Law, and Co-Director of the Global Policy Institute, stated that if the U.S. Supreme Court accepts the case and rules against the Trump administration, over $100 billion in collected tariffs may need to be refunded with interest. If businesses demand compensation for other losses and such claims are supported, the U.S. government would face an overwhelming financial burden.
