Against the backdrop of Bitcoin breaking through $124,000 to set a new all-time high, MicroStrategy (MSTR) has failed to benefit simultaneously. Its stock price has retreated from a high of $543 to $325, a decline of over 40%. This divergence, where "the king rises while the follower falls," highlights the differences in valuation logic between native crypto assets and strategy stocks, further intensifying market divisions.

Optimists argue that MSTR's Bitcoin holdings are severely undervalued by the market. Based on its disclosed 185,000 Bitcoins, the value per share exceeds $650, while the current price is only $325, representing a nearly 50% discount. However, bears focus on high leverage and collateral risks. MSTR has over $3.8 billion in debt, mostly from floating-rate financing, resulting in heavy interest burdens in a high-rate environment. Worse yet, 40% of its Bitcoins have been pledged as collateral, meaning sharp price fluctuations could trigger liquidations, creating a vicious cycle of "forced selling—plummeting stock prices."

Meanwhile, the popularity of Bitcoin spot ETFs has undermined MSTR's alternative status. ETFs not only directly track Bitcoin but also avoid corporate leverage and management risks, significantly diverting market demand away from MSTR. Trading data shows that ETFs far exceed MSTR in liquidity, making its marginalization trend increasingly evident.

Fundamentally, MSTR's stock struggles to keep up with Bitcoin's gains due to differences in asset attributes, risk exposure, and market positioning. Bitcoin's price directly reflects global consensus, while MSTR, as an "intermediated asset," faces dilution from additional variables such as debt costs and corporate governance. It often underperforms during rallies and amplifies losses during declines due to leverage, resulting in an asymmetric pattern of "rising less and falling more."

For investors, MSTR could be either a value opportunity or a risk trap. Derivative strategies such as protective puts, covered calls, and spreads have become primary tools to manage its high volatility. The lesson from this case is that any intermediated financial asset will deviate from its native value due to leverage, liquidity, and the maturity of alternative instruments. A discount may represent either an opportunity or a risk premium.

Ultimately, MSTR is unlikely to replace Bitcoin as the market's "lead gainer." It is more likely to serve as a supplementary tool for some investors. This valuation game reflects the long-term tensions in the financialization of crypto assets.