$4000! What gold is silently shouting is not just safe-haven anxiety, but also an instinctive response to the undercurrents reshaping the global monetary order.

On the morning of October 7, 2025, the main New York gold futures contract experienced a rare intraday surge, hitting a record high of $4,000 per ounce; its year-to-date gain exceeded 50%. This breakout surge in gold wasn't ignited by geopolitical conflicts or inflation expectations. Instead, against the backdrop of the Fed restarting interest rate cuts and a significantly weaker US Dollar Index, continuous gold reserve accumulation by central banks and active allocation to gold assets by the private sector are driving gold's independent rally. In the name of gold, capital markets are casting a "silent referendum" against the credibility of the US dollar.

This historic moment coincides with the US government once again falling into a "technical shutdown" due to a budget impasse and an uncertain global economic outlook, where market risk appetite and safe-haven instincts are intertwined.

After the Fed's rate cut, the US Dollar Index weakened, with a year-to-date drop of nearly 10%, while the RMB exchange rate remained stable with a positive trend, appreciating 2.46% year-to-date. This could be an inflection point for systemic variables. It signifies that the world is searching for an asset anchor beyond the US dollar.

In this context, the "triangular functions" of the RMB might be leaping: gradually advancing from a "settlement currency" to an "investment currency," and progressively testing the boundaries of becoming a "reserve currency."

IMF data shows that in the first quarter of 2025, the RMB's share of global foreign exchange reserves was 2.12% ($246.3 billion), ranking sixth, below the US dollar (57.74%), euro (20.06%), British pound (5.12%), Japanese yen (5.15%), and Canadian dollar (2.63%).

Some analysts believe that although China's financial markets continue to open up, RMB internationalization is currently in a stage of "spiral ascent" but faces structural challenges. For instance, China's economy has immense global influence, but the international status of the RMB does not match it. The future promotion strategy is a systematic project requiring multi-pronged and steady efforts.

In this silent asset revaluation, the RMB is being re-examined. As the world begins to search for a new anchor beyond the US dollar, more enterprises and capital flows are trying to answer an increasingly clear question—when we no longer have to watch the US dollar's "expression," whom can the world trust?

The Market's Choice
If gold breaking through $4,000/ounce is the market's "silent shout," then the RMB is precisely the most noteworthy "silent relay runner" behind this shout.

Imagine this scenario: In the autumn of 2025, a medium-sized auto parts exporter in Shanghai completes an order for a South African client using RMB for the entire process of quotation, settlement, and capital repatriation.

The company's CFO might tell you that this wasn't due to policy requirements or subsidies, but simply because the counterparty asked if they could pay in RMB.

Such a response reflects the subtle changes of our time. In the second quarter of this year, the proportion of RMB settlement in Chinese enterprises' cross-border transactions exceeded that of the US dollar for the first time.

Supported by the Bank of Communications and the Ministry of Commerce, the International Monetary Institute (IMI) of Renmin University of China has conducted four quarterly surveys on corporate cross-border RMB usage since 2024 (with the number of corporate questionnaires ranging from 1,090 to 1,793 per quarter). Survey results show that more enterprises, including foreign-funded firms and third-country trading partners, are actively requesting RMB settlement. Specifically, in the fourth quarter of 2024, 68% of surveyed enterprises used RMB for cross-border trade settlement, 40% used RMB in transactions with third countries, and 71% cited "asset safety" as the primary reason for using RMB.

This data shows that the RMB is no longer just a policy slogan; it is becoming internationalized through the reality of transactions, embedded in the microeconomic fabric.

Against the backdrop of US dollar interest rate cuts, gold hitting new highs, the upcoming 10th anniversary of the Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), and the official launch of the Digital RMB International Operation Center, the logic of RMB internationalization may be evolving from "passively replacing the US dollar" to "actively participating in the restructuring of the global monetary system."

Research by Professor Tu Yonghong and others from the School of Finance at Renmin University of China, based on extensive micro-level enterprise data, reveals the underlying drivers and institutional challenges of this trend.

The market's choice is also corroborated by capital flows, including simultaneous institutional efforts to "pave the way" for market choices, aiming to build a "user-friendly" and warm international financial ecosystem.

The Capital Choice Behind Transactions
Often, we are accustomed to discussing RMB internationalization from the perspective of central banks and foreign exchange reserves. But when we look at the front lines of transactions, we see a more relatable logic: the currency enterprises use is closely related to their cash flow, sense of security, risk aversion capabilities, and counterparty acceptance.

The reason the RMB is or will be chosen is that, in the eyes of enterprises, it is becoming more user-friendly, stable, and free from having to watch the US dollar's "expression."

Data shows that on September 26, northbound funds saw a net inflow of over 10 billion yuan for the day, with a cumulative turnover of 1.45 trillion yuan for the week. Particularly after the Fed initiated its first rate cut this year, RMB assets once again attracted global investor attention. Overseas investors buying RMB bonds, increasing holdings of core A-share assets, and even driving the appreciation of offshore RMB exchange rates are all concrete manifestations of this force.

More importantly, these actions are not based on short-term arbitrage opportunities, but rather on an expectation of "reunderstanding Chinese assets."

Taking China's bond market as an example, its internationalization is deepening. By the end of August 2025, 1,170 overseas institutions had entered the market, with bond holdings of approximately 4 trillion yuan. As holdings scale up, the need for overseas investors to conduct liquidity management through repos is becoming increasingly urgent.

On September 26, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) jointly announced support for overseas institutional investors engaged in bond spot trading in China's bond market to conduct bond repo businesses. After the announcement, overseas institutional investors conducting bond repo businesses in the interbank bond market will adopt internationally common practices, achieving target bond transfer and usability.

How Systems Make Transactions Smoother
The Digital RMB International Operation Center landing in Shanghai, the trial operation of the cross-border QR code unified gateway, and the upcoming 10th anniversary of CIPS—if these seemingly scattered measures are connected, it becomes clear that China is building a "transaction-driven RMB infrastructure system."

This isn't us saying, "Come use the RMB," but rather, "Do you want to trade? The RMB will become increasingly user-friendly."

Consequently, cross-border RMB business has moved from the past stage of "policy guidance" to a stage of "infrastructure support + market autonomous choice." IMI surveys show that the RMB settlement usage rate among foreign-funded enterprises rose from 40% in the third quarter of 2024 to 67% in the fourth quarter. This leap, especially among European, American, and Australian companies, is not due to political considerations but pure commercial rationality: enhanced liquidity, improved clearing efficiency, reduced costs, and an increasingly friendly institutional environment.

On September 24, 2025, the Digital RMB International Operation Center was officially launched in Shanghai, simultaneously unveiling three business platforms: the Digital RMB Cross-border Digital Payment Platform, the Digital RMB Blockchain Service Platform, and the Digital Asset Platform. This operation center aims to serve as a bridge connecting domestic and international financial infrastructure, promoting the evolution of cross-border digital RMB payments towards scale, compliance, and intelligence.

According to Lu Lei, Deputy Governor of the PBOC, the upgrading and evolution of the monetary and payment system in the digital era is a historical inevitability. The PBOC is committed to providing open, inclusive, and innovative solutions to improve the global cross-border payment system. The proposed three principles of "non-prejudice, compliance, and interoperability" have become the basic guidelines for the cross-border infrastructure construction of legal digital currencies. A cross-border financial infrastructure system for the digital RMB has been initially established. Simultaneously, innovations in asset digitization conducive to improving regulatory efficiency and penetrability are being explored to enhance settlement transparency and the intelligence of value circulation. The landing of the business platforms in Shanghai is not only a concrete measure to facilitate cross-border payments but also highly aligns with the core function construction of Shanghai as an international financial center. In the future, the PBOC will continue to support the steady and long-term development of the Digital RMB International Operation Center, providing solid support for the facilitation of cross-border trade and investment financing.

Wu Wei, Member of the Standing Committee of the Shanghai Municipal Committee and Executive Vice Mayor of Shanghai, stated that the landing of the Digital RMB International Operation Center and its business platforms in Shanghai will inject strong momentum into the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center. Relevant departments in Shanghai should fully leverage these business platforms to continuously expand the application scenarios and usage scope of the digital RMB, helping to enhance the level of RMB internationalization.

The Digital RMB International Operation Center has opened the channel from institutional expectation to market connectivity. The launch of the three business platforms means that preparations for RMB internationalization and assetization are being made from the technical foundation to the application layer. Simultaneously, the center strengthens the role of the "digital middle platform" in the RMB ecosystem, providing institutional support for future cross-border digital RMB transactions, on-chain clearing, and asset matching. Furthermore, the center has also pre-embedded "interfaces for future scenarios" at the institutional level—ensuring that RMB can flow efficiently not only in traditional interbank systems but also be seamlessly deployed in the future world of on-chain assets.

In Tu Yonghong's view, the core logic behind the official operation of the Digital RMB International Operation Center and the simultaneous launch of the three business platforms lies in: being backed by state credit, making it more reliable than private stablecoins, avoiding currency volatility risk and liquidity risk, while retaining the convenience of digital currency. The Shanghai platform integrates the entire chain of issuance, circulation, and clearing, is compatible with existing systems, and supports smart contracts, making it both efficient and controllable. Creating a safer and more credible "Chinese solution" in the digital currency field, especially with Shanghai as a financial center, this step could have implications for cross-border payments and global rule-making.

Policy coordination is also advancing simultaneously. The "Regulations on Promoting and Regulating the Application of Electronic Documents (Draft for Comments)" issued by the Cyberspace Administration of China on September 13 explicitly encourage the use of electronic documents in trade, logistics, and finance, and support financial institutions in exploring new cross-border payment methods such as the digital RMB under the premise of compliance.

All this points to one signal: RMB internationalization no longer relies on policy pronouncements but strives to win market choice through transaction experience.

The RMB's Choice
Building the digital RMB cross-border infrastructure is not meant to replace anyone, but to allow us to "autonomously complete transactions within a system that cannot be cut off."

This also explains why the principles for the internationalization of the digital RMB are: non-prejudice, compliance, and interoperability. It is not a confrontational institutional design but a compatible technological evolution. In the eyes of transacting parties, whether the RMB is continuously chosen depends on its comprehensive competitiveness as a medium of exchange—including liquidity adequacy, asset safety, institutional transparency, and technical support capabilities.

Of course, this process inevitably comes with challenges. As revealed by the IMI survey: over 60% of enterprises find cross-border RMB policies complex and frequently updated, and nearly 50% view "capital flow obstacles" as a major bottleneck. These practical obstacles undoubtedly increase corporate compliance costs and operational concerns, lowering the "perceived temperature" of market usage.

To resolve these "cold spots," future efforts need to focus on three levels:

1. Unclog the "Blood Vessels": Reduce unnecessary capital flow restrictions through policy simplification and process optimization, enhancing capital circulation efficiency.

2. Forge the "Shield": Prioritize the development of onshore derivative markets, providing rich and efficient risk hedging tools to safeguard overseas entities holding RMB assets.

3. Precise "Drip Irrigation": Design more adaptable financial products and services to help private enterprises convert willingness to use into actual action, solidifying the micro-foundation of RMB internationalization.

Tu Yonghong proposes building a dual-drive model of "RMB + Digital Currency." Leveraging the advantages of the digital RMB in cost, efficiency, and transparency, deeply embed it into cross-border trade scenarios, while simultaneously enhancing the cross-border service capabilities of financial institutions and incentivizing enterprises to fully incorporate the RMB into their strategic frameworks for cash management, asset allocation, and risk hedging.

All these efforts point towards a clear vision: to promote the RMB from being an "optional" asset in the current international market to gradually advancing into a hard currency that is "must-hold and must-use" in global trade, financing, and reserves. This transformation cannot be achieved overnight; it requires profound financial reforms, solid infrastructure, a rich asset system, extensive international cooperation, and effective risk control—all these pillars must be advanced synergistically to support a truly internationalized currency system.

When the use of the RMB ultimately transcends administrative guidance and achieves natural expansion through the power of the transaction network itself, the credit it establishes will be truly solid and perceptible global credit.

The various signs we see today—from "enterprises actively choosing" to "sustained inflows of northbound funds," from "gold's historical highs" to "the gentle erosion of dollar authority"—are not isolated events. They collectively point to a global monetary environment undergoing structural change.

The "three motives" for holding money proposed by Keynes in The General Theory—transaction, precautionary, and speculative—essentially reveal how market participants perceive and respond to the "temperature" of money based on risk preferences and future expectations. Rising temperature signifies restored confidence, funds moving from static to fluid, from观望 to participation; falling temperature预示着避险情绪主导, liquidity being "hoarded," and the market entering a conservative state.

These phenomena are different splashes stirred up by the same grand wave.

If the narrative of history was long written by nations that controlled the credit and clearing systems, then today, the RMB stands at the starting point of participating in reshaping the next chapter of history—not as a disruptor, but as a transaction facilitator, financial innovator, and co-builder of rules.

A currency with temperature will ultimately return to the transaction itself and, with every choice, define the credit of the future.