Two Leading Indicators Sound Alarm, Bitcoin "Enshrouded in Fear"

  • 2025-10-18

 

Amid recent sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin's price, two key leading indicators from the options market and miner on-chain activity are emitting increasingly strong warning signals.

The latest market dynamics show that traders are preparing for potential further downside risks. According to a Cointelegraph report today, a key indicator in the Bitcoin options market, the "delta skew," has climbed above 10%, indicating that professional traders are buying put options at a premium. This is typically seen as a classic signal of bearish market sentiment.

Meanwhile, miner movements have also raised market alarms. According to data from CryptoQuant, since October 9th, miner addresses have deposited approximately 51,000 Bitcoin into the Binance exchange. This largest inflow of funds into exchanges since July has historically often occurred before price weakness.

The simultaneous deterioration of these two major indicators has directly led to increased market risk aversion and poses a severe test to Bitcoin's price support levels. The price of Bitcoin once fell to $107,600 on Thursday.

Options Market Flashes Red, Surge in Put Bets

Data from the derivatives market clearly reflects traders' growing concerns.

Data from laevitas.ch shows that the Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew indicator, which measures professional trader sentiment, has broken through 10%, significantly higher than the neutral range of -6% to +6%. This indicates that market participants are willing to pay higher costs to buy put options to hedge against the risk of price declines.

Furthermore, the demand for downside protection strategies is confirmed by trading volume. It was reported that on Thursday, the trading volume of put options on the Deribit exchange was 50% higher than that of call options, with this indicator climbing to its highest level in over 30 days.

This signifies that market pressure is building, as under normal circumstances, cryptocurrency trader sentiment tends to be optimistic, and the usual reading for the put/call options ratio would be lower.

Large-Scale Miner Transfers, History Hints at Selling Pressure

Beyond the signals from the derivatives market, the movements of one of the most critical participants in the Bitcoin ecosystem—miners—have also added uncertainty to the market.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that over seven days since October 9th, miner addresses transferred 51,000 Bitcoin, worth over $5.7 billion, to the Binance exchange. Among these, on October 11th alone, miners deposited over 14,000 Bitcoin into Binance, which occurred the day after the recent "crypto market mass liquidation." This scale is also the largest since last July.

CryptoQuant pointed out in a report on Thursday that miners transferring Bitcoin from wallets used for storage or mining to trading platforms usually implies they might be preparing to sell or hedge.

The report emphasized that although these transfers could also be for other reasons such as collateral, financing, or operations, historical experience shows that when miners start selling, the market usually doesn't fare well.

This sentiment shift from "holding" to "selling" has historically put pressure on Bitcoin prices and has often been a precursor to significant price corrections.

Bitcoin miners have shifted from holders to sellers, which historically signals sharp turns in Bitcoin's price and market sentiment.

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