Yale Economics Professor: Popular Narratives Are the Main Force Driving Asset Prices

  • 2025-10-23

 

As stated in the "Xici" of the I Ching: "The Yi is without thought and without action, silent and unmoving; but when stimulated, it penetrates all situations under Heaven." All things between heaven and earth, though seemingly silent and inactive, actually contain the mechanism of stimulus and response. Once a person "senses" something, they can "penetrate" and understand the principles of all things. In the digital intelligence era, human emotions—this most primitive and authentic form of "sensing"—are being captured, encapsulated, priced, and circulated in unprecedented ways, evolving into a new category of "asset." This is not only a technological revolution but also a manifestation of the spirit: emotion, as what humans "sense," is now "penetrating" the "reason" of value through digital technology.

From the digital totems of crypto art to the collective fervor of the fan economy, the capitalization of emotion is no longer a future vision but a present reality. It no longer relies on traditional material carriers but flows and appreciates in the global digital sphere, using code as the medium and consensus as the foundation. The value of future assets will depend not only on their financial attributes but also on the strength of their connection to social sentiment and cultural consensus. Individual emotional fluctuations are amplified, connected, and resonated through the network, ultimately converging into a form of value that can be widely recognized, accepted, and traded.

I. Digital Assets as the Embodiment of Emotion

Catalyzed by digital technologies like blockchain, emotions once hidden within the heart have found a materialized path to "sense and penetrate." A series of digital projects clearly outline how emotion leaps from private experience to public asset.

Cryptopunks: The "Sense" of Identity and the "Penetration" of the Crypto Tribe. The value of these low-pixel avatars far exceeds the images themselves. They are new "totems" in the digital wilderness, carrying the sense of belonging, historical narrative authority, and rebellious spirit of the crypto world. Owning a Cryptopunk is like possessing an identity badge, declaring to the global community: "I sense this, I belong here."

NBA Top Shot: The "Sense" of Collective Memory and the "Penetration" of Community Resonance. It encapsulates ecstatic moments from the sports arena—game-winning shots, comebacks, blocks—into ownable digital moments. The emotional investment of fans in teams and stars finds a new vehicle and means of circulation through these digital "memorabilia."

Fan Tokens: The "Sense" of Participation and Belonging and the "Penetration" of Financial Rights. Fan tokens issued by clubs like Paris Saint-Germain transform fan support and sense of belonging into concrete voting rights and access to exclusive content. BlackRock emphasized in its digital asset research report, "Community consensus and a sense of participation are becoming the core value support for new types of equity-like assets."

From CryptoKitties to concepts like the "Life" series, the paths for assetizing emotion continue to expand. Emotional energies such as identity, community belonging, historical narrative, and cultural symbols, once "sensed" and triggered in digital form, can break through individual boundaries, "penetrate" and reach each other within the network, and condense into consensual value.

II. Analysis of the Emotional Value of Crypto Assets

Robert Shiller, a Yale University economics professor and 2013 Nobel laureate in Economics, is the founder of narrative economics. He believes that popular narratives are the main force driving economic events, including asset price fluctuations. In the digital asset space, narratives such as the "DeFi revolution" and "digital gold" significantly influence investor sentiment, thereby determining asset prices, with their importance even surpassing traditional fundamental analysis. His theory provides a perfect framework for explaining the massive volatility of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Nicholas Coles, a professor of Psychology and Behavioral Economics at Duke University, is a significant contributor to behavioral finance. He studies how psychological biases (such as overconfidence, herd mentality, loss aversion) lead to irrational exuberance and panic in markets. These biases are极度 amplified in the cryptocurrency market, which features 24/7 trading, lack of regulation, and high information asymmetry, making emotion a core driver of short-term and even medium-term price movements.

Alex Freesman & Tyler Cows, founders of Messari (former equity research analysts), although not scholars from traditional academia, have an influential analytical framework in the crypto space. They proposed the concept of the "Emotion Machine," suggesting that the value of crypto networks like Bitcoin largely stems from their ability to function as a "global, decentralized belief/emotion coordination system." Price is not only a reflection of value but also a thermometer of collective belief and emotion.

Traditional international financial organizations like the Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund are typically cautious or critical of cryptocurrencies. They have repeatedly stated in reports that cryptocurrency prices are primarily driven by speculative sentiment rather than fundamental economic utility. They view it as a "perfect laboratory" for testing behavioral finance and market irrationality and warn of the potential risks its price volatility poses to financial stability.

III. Technical Reasons Why Emotional Value Affects Crypto Asset Pricing

Although the above analyses often address specific issues, it is undeniable that blockchain and digital technologies have indeed executed a "dimensionality reduction attack" on the "sensing and penetrating" of emotion, significantly lowering the barrier to assetization and ushering in an era of popularization.

  • Authentication and Uniqueness Lay the Foundation for Sensing and Penetrating: NFTs provide immutable digital identity for any digital item, giving emotion a tangible anchor to "sense."

  • Near-Zero Marginal Cost of Creation and Distribution Broadens the Source of Sensing and Penetrating: Anyone can quickly encapsulate emotions sparked by momentary inspiration or memorable occasions into assets, breaking down traditional elitist creation barriers.

  • Global Liquid Markets Realize the Ultimate Penetration: Blockchain-based trading platforms provide global, round-the-clock markets, drastically shortening the path for emotion to be "monetized."

  • Composability Elevates the Dimension of Sensing and Penetrating: Emotional assets can be composed with protocols like DeFi, social media, and gaming,衍生出 complex applications such as staking, lending, and fractional ownership. BlackRock stated in its 2024 Technology Investment Outlook, "The composability of assets and their ability to attach emotion will become key metrics for the next generation of digital ecosystems."

Blockchain technology is leading us into an era where "everyone can sense, and every sense can penetrate." Any emotion capable of resonating with a community can be rapidly captured and placed in the global market, awaiting the "penetration" of value.

IV. Emotional Value as Potential Asset Pricing Logic in the Digital Intelligence Era

In the digital intelligence era, with advancing technology, the value of emotion as an asset will likely extend beyond tradability and potentially leap to become the core engine driving innovation and a key metric for value assessment.

  • Emotional Value Becomes the Core Measure: We are moving towards an era of the "Empathy Economy." The value of products and services will increasingly be measured by their ability to evoke positive emotions and satisfy emotional needs. Emotion is moving from the periphery to the center of the economy.

  • The Quality of Emotional Interaction Determines Collaboration Depth: With AI replacing大量 standardized tasks, human creativity, emotional insight, and empathy become comparative advantages. BlackRock wrote in its Future of Humanity series, "Amid the deluge of automation, human emotion and empathy are the ultimate scarce resources and the 'emotional discount rate' for future asset pricing."

  • Emotional Data Becomes Core Production Material: AI systems capable of accurately identifying and understanding human emotions rely on vast, high-quality emotional data for training. These datasets themselves are valuable assets, foundational for developing more natural human-computer interaction.

The I Ching's revelation of "when stimulated, it penetrates all situations under Heaven" is now manifesting in a new, materialized form. The emotional ripples of individuals, through the "sensing" and "penetrating" of digital networks, converge into indispensable coordinates on the global value map. In an age where AI is reshaping everything, emotion—humanity's oldest, most essential trait—will not depreciate. On the contrary, due to its irreplaceable creativity, connectivity, and empathy that cannot be automated, it will become our most precious capital.

The era of emotional assetization has just begun. It invites us to re-examine every fluctuation within our hearts and cherish every resonance. For within that seemingly intangible "sense" lies immense wealth and infinite potential capable of "penetrating" and defining the future.

The heart of the world, sensing, penetrates all; the wealth of the future, lies hidden within emotion.

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