S&P 500 Falls 2.36% Weekly, Rate Cut Expectations Become August Focus

  • 2025-08-04

 

As of the week ending August 1st Eastern Time, the U.S. stock market experienced a significant correction. The S&P 500 closed at 6,238.01 points, down 2.36% from the previous week's close of 6,388.64 points. Year-to-date (as of August 1st, same below), the index has risen 6.06%, rebounding 25.19% from this year's low of 4,982.77 points on April 8th.

By sector, only utilities and communication services recorded gains for the week, rising 1.52% and 0.02%, respectively. Materials led the declines, falling 5.40%, followed by healthcare (-3.86%), financials (-3.75%), and information technology (-1.41%). Year-to-date, industrials performed the best, up 13.58%, while healthcare was the weakest, down 4.83%.

The Q2 earnings season continues. About 70% of the S&P 500's market capitalization has reported results, with 77.6% beating profit estimates and 78.1% exceeding revenue expectations. Q2 earnings are expected to grow 10.2% quarter-over-quarter and 8.6% year-over-year, reaching a new quarterly high. Sales revenue is projected to increase 3.2% quarter-over-quarter and 3.1% year-over-year, with operating margins expected to rise to 12.58%, the second-highest level in history. Full-year earnings are forecast to grow 10.2%, with 2026 earnings expected to increase by 16.4%.

On the macroeconomic front, the preliminary annualized GDP growth for Q2 was 3.0%, exceeding expectations of 2.5%, following a 0.5% decline in Q1. The June international trade deficit narrowed to $86 billion, with imports down 4.2% and exports down 0.6%. U.S. personal income rose 0.3% in June, while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.3%, with the PCE price index up 2.3% year-over-year. The July manufacturing PMI was 49.8. Nonfarm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% and the labor participation rate falling to 62.2%.

Policy-wise, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% during its July meeting, with two members supporting a 0.25 percentage point cut. Markets expect the Fed to cut rates once each in September and December. The Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada also maintained their current rates.

This week, the U.S. will release several economic data points and corporate earnings reports. Macro data includes international trade, services PMI, ISM services index, wholesale inventories, weekly EIA crude oil inventories, initial jobless claims, and productivity and costs. On the earnings front, companies such as Archer Daniels Midland, Caterpillar, McDonald's, Disney, Uber, and Eli Lilly will report their results.

Go Back Top