Trump Fires Multiple Shots: On Tariffs, the Fed, and Russia!

Last night, European and U.S. stocks rose as Trump addressed multiple issues. The probability of a September rate cut exceeds 90%. On Wednesday (August 6), U.S. stocks closed higher, with market optimism likely fueled by growing expectations of rate cuts.

The Nasdaq rose over 1%, with major tech stocks broadly advancing. Apple surged more than 5% after increasing its U.S. investment commitment to $600 billion; Amazon gained about 4%, and Tesla rose over 3%.

According to CME's "FedWatch Tool," there is a 6.4% chance the Fed will hold rates steady in September and a 93.6% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. For October, the probability of no change is 2%, with a 33.9% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut and a 64% chance of a 50-basis-point cut.

Among Chinese stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose nearly 1%. Individual stocks included I-Mab (up nearly 11%) and QuantaSing Group (up over 9%).

Additionally, gold opened slightly higher this morning but later fluctuated.

Per CCTV reports, on August 6 local time, U.S. President Trump announced approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors.

Trump stated that no tariffs would apply if the products were made in the U.S. He also said additional secondary sanctions would be imposed on Russia.

On July 29, Trump set a 10-day deadline for Russia to make progress toward a peace deal with Ukraine, starting that day. If no progress is made, new U.S. sanctions will follow. The current deadline for Russia-Ukraine talks is August 8.

Previously, Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports to the U.S., citing India's "direct or indirect imports of Russian oil."

Regarding Fed appointments, Trump said he has begun interviewing candidates, narrowed down to three, and that Treasury Secretary Besant will not take a Fed position.

Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026. Powell, who has resisted Trump's repeated calls for rate cuts, remains a thorn in the president's side.

In a CNBC phone interview, when asked about potential Fed chair successors, Trump praised, "Both Kevins are excellent."

He referred to Kevin Hassett, his chief economic advisor and director of the National Economic Council, and Kevin Warsh, a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011 and former advisor to Republican President George W. Bush.