Gold prices plummeted, with spot gold briefly falling below $3,380 per ounce.

In early trading on August 11, spot gold touched $3,400 per ounce before experiencing a short-term drop, declining over 0.6% at one point.

As of this writing, COMEX gold futures fell by 1.34%.

"Gold Bar Tariff" Rumors Trigger Gold Price Volatility

Rumors about "gold bar tariffs" have caused fluctuations in gold prices. According to the Financial Times, the U.S. government has imposed tariffs on imported one-kilogram gold bars. The report stated that U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) issued a "ruling letter" on July 31, classifying one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars under a customs code subject to tariffs.

The White House quickly responded. Bloomberg reported that the White House plans to issue an executive order soon to clarify what an official called "misinformation" regarding tariffs on gold and other specialty products. Bloomberg stated that the White House’s clarification would help calm market turmoil caused by concerns over gold import tariffs.

Additionally, on August 9 (local time), Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman emphasized in a recent speech that the latest employment data reinforced the argument for three rate cuts this year. She urged other policymakers to begin cutting rates at the Fed’s September meeting, noting that upside inflation risks have diminished and proactive cuts could prevent further labor market deterioration.

On August 10 (local time), U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant announced that he is leading the search for a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Besant stated that the next Fed chair should earn market trust and possess "forward-thinking" qualities. He stressed that monetary policy independence is crucial for the economy and expressed hope that policies would maintain the dollar’s reserve currency status.

Market Analysis:

• Donghai Futures believes that weak U.S. economic data (July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 50.1, below expectations of 51.5 and the previous 50.8), combined with political pressure and the nomination of a temporary Fed governor, may tilt the Fed’s independence. Markets now price in a nearly 90% chance of a September rate cut. The focus has shifted from tariffs to economic data, with precious metals supported by easing expectations in the short term while long-term investment logic remains unchanged.

• Hualian Futures predicts that central bank gold purchases, ETF investments, and a weaker dollar will support gold prices in H2 2025, leading to wide fluctuations. The Fed’s June meeting raised inflation and unemployment forecasts for 2025–2026 while lowering growth expectations, maintaining two rate cuts this year but reducing next year’s cuts. A September rate cut is expected, with gold likely to rally further in Q4. Long-term bullish factors (dollar weakness and central bank buying amid global instability) remain intact.