In terms of macroeconomic data, US employment growth over the year through March was far weaker than previously reported, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

On Tuesday local time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released preliminary benchmark revision data, showing that nonfarm employment for the year through March was revised down by 911,000, equivalent to an average monthly reduction of nearly 76,000 jobs. Based on a total labor force of 171 million, this revision accounts for approximately 0.6%. This marks the largest downward revision since 2000. Previously, employment levels from April 2023 to March 2024 had already been adjusted downward by 598,000 jobs.

Market expectations for this downward revision were 682,000. Before the data release, multiple foreign media outlets reported that US employment figures for the year through March could be revised down by nearly 800,000. However, the actual downward revision was even larger than widely expected. The data released on Tuesday will be further adjusted in February 2026 when the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the final benchmark revision.

The annual benchmark revision for nonfarm employment differs from monthly adjustments, as it is much broader in scope. Monthly adjustments primarily come from new survey data collected by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, while the annual benchmark revision is based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and tax data. These data provide an almost comprehensive recalculation, rather than just incremental revisions to monthly reports.

Following the release of this data adjustment, gold initially rose before falling, and US Treasury yields subsequently climbed. This adjustment by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that the recent slowdown in the US labor market actually occurred after a period of already cooling employment growth, which could lay the groundwork for a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as early as next week.

Currently, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to announce a rate cut at the end of its two-day meeting on September 17. Traders are pricing in a more than 90% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by a total of 75 basis points by the end of December. Over the past week, market bets on rate cuts have increased.