On the afternoon of September 25, the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index fluctuated upward, currently rising by about 0.3%. Constituent stocks such as Zangge Mining, Yangnong Chemical, Wanhua Chemical, and CNOOC led the gains. Regarding related ETFs, the Petrochemical ETF (159731) followed the index upward, representing a favorable timing for allocation.

Donghai Securities pointed out that the supply side is expected to undergo structural optimization, and domestic policies frequently mention "anti-involution." Overseas, due to rising raw material costs and impacts from Asian capacity, European and American chemical companies have seen shutdowns or capacity withdrawals. Short-term geopolitical frictions increase uncertainty in overseas supply, while China, with its long-term cost and technological advantages, is expected to reshape the global chemical landscape. Key focus areas include sectors with greater supply elasticity, such as silicones, membrane materials, chlor-alkali, and dyes, as well as leaders in coal chemicals, fluorochemical refrigerants, and pesticides that possess relative advantages. Due to quota restrictions and rising demand, the supply-demand dynamics for third-generation refrigerants are optimizing, with prices continuously rising. R32, R134a, and R125 have seen significant increases within the year, leading to substantial profit growth for related enterprises. Under new consumption trends, demand for health additives and sugar substitutes is increasing, and the food additive industry's prosperity is expected to recover. The self-sufficiency rate for new chemical materials is about 56%, with substitution accelerating. Fields such as photoresists and high-end engineering plastics are facing development opportunities.

The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its feeder funds (017855/017856) closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index. In terms of Shenwan primary industry distribution, the basic chemicals industry accounts for 60.65%, and the petroleum and petrochemicals industry accounts for 32.3%. The top ten constituent stocks by weight are Wanhua Chemical, PetroChina, Sinopec, Salt Lake Co., Ltd., CNOOC, Juhua Co., Ltd., Zangge Mining, Hualu-Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy Group, and Hengli Petrochemical. The combined weight of the top ten constituent stocks is 55.63%.