I. Core Assessment and Anchoring Market Expectations
The core contradiction in the recent macro market focuses on the Fed's "policy split" and "information vacuum"—these two factors not only cause short-term market volatility but also lay the groundwork for structural long-term gains.

The Macro Foundation is Clear: Market consensus holds that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at the October FOMC meeting. The "flexible dovish" signals previously released by Powell have effectively anchored short-term rate cut expectations, creating room for subsequent easing policies.

Direct Impact on the Crypto Market:

Liquidity-Driven Price Surge: Rate cut expectations have strengthened market confidence in "liquidity easing." Capital is flooding into the crypto market in pursuit of higher yields, driving Bitcoin's short-term surge to $126,000, confirming positive market sentiment.

Scarcity Value Further Solidified: Persistent easing policies dilute the purchasing power of fiat currencies. As an anti-inflation, non-sovereign store of value, Bitcoin's long-term narrative is strengthened—the current higher correlation between Bitcoin and gold compared to U.S. stocks is direct evidence of this "hedging attribute."

II. Market Consolidation Amid the Policy "Information Fog": Not a Logic Failure
The current pullback of Bitcoin from $126,000 to $121,000, along with altcoins experiencing wide fluctuations, is essentially a normal reaction as the market digests high-level risks and awaits confirmation from macro data—not a breakdown of the previously established macro logic.

III. Practical Impact of Policy Games and Market Psychology
The Fed's current "policy split" and "information fog" directly lead to intensified short-term market consolidation and amplified volatility, which can be analyzed from two perspectives:

1. Dovish Consensus Provides an "Emotional Buffer"
   Powell's flexible stance, combined with the prevailing inclination within the Fed toward "preemptive rate cuts," has shaped market expectations for "long-term liquidity easing"—this is the core "emotional support" enabling the crypto market to maintain its high range. As long as the Fed does not explicitly rule out rate cuts, market fear of a "bear market" will not be fully triggered.

2. "Information Vacuum" Triggers Risk Premium Release
   Due to the government shutdown, the delayed release of key economic data has turned the October Fed meeting into a decision-making process "flying in the dark"—this uncertainty transforms into "excess optimistic premium" during market surges and "uncertainty risk premium" when sentiment cools. The current market pullback represents a phased release of this risk premium.

IV. Market Psychological Transition and Strategic Outlook: Consolidation Accumulates Energy for the Next Rally
The current market consolidation is essentially a natural transition in investor psychology from "mindless optimism" to "cautious wait-and-see." It is not a trend reversal but more likely a phase of accumulating momentum for the next upswing.

Shift in Focus and Key to Trend Confirmation: The market's core focus has shifted to the "delayed release of key economic data"—if, upon their release, indicators such as employment and inflation show economic weakness, it will provide "factual support" for Fed rate cuts. The pent-up liquidity would then be released集中ly, and Bitcoin is likely to maintain strong momentum, challenging new highs again.

In short, the final formation of a trend in the crypto market relies on the combined verification of "macro data + Fed action."