Goldman Sachs Raises Capital Expenditure Forecasts for Tencent and Alibaba, Hong Kong Tech 30 ETF (513160) Continues to "Attract Funds" for 8 Consecutive Days with 688 Million Yuan; Institutions: AI Remains a Clear Theme in Hong Kong Stock Market

  • 2025-10-15

 

As of October 15, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.97% at the time of writing, and the Hang Seng Stock Connect China Technology Index (HSSCT.HK) gained 0.9%. Among the index constituents, Bilibili-W rose over 3%, Sunny Optical Technology Group rose over 2%, and Black Sesame Intelligent Technology and Alibaba-W rose nearly 2%.

Regarding related ETFs, the Hong Kong Tech 30 ETF (513160) increased by 0.83%, with a real-time premium rate of 0.17%. In terms of fund flows, the ETF had a net inflow of 44.6253 million yuan on the previous trading day (October 14). As of October 14, it has seen net inflows for eight consecutive trading days, accumulating a total net inflow of 688 million yuan. The ETF's latest circulating shares are 3.743 billion, and its latest circulating scale is 4.902 billion yuan.

On the news front, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Informatization recently issued the "Shanghai High-Quality Development Action Plan for the Smart Terminal Industry (2026-2027)" to enhance the scale of intelligent computing terminals. It aims to accelerate the deployment of edge intelligent computing all-in-one terminals, develop inference all-in-one products supporting lightweight large models, create plug-and-play AI edge solutions, and speed up the empowerment of various industries by AI. The plan also focuses on building an intelligent computing server terminal industrial cluster, improving the optimization capability of 10,000-card cluster systems, gathering high-quality domestic intelligent computing server manufacturers to achieve a scale of tens of billions, and driving the large-scale application of core components like domestic GPUs and interconnection modules.

According to the Securities Times, Goldman Sachs stated in its latest report that it has raised its capital expenditure forecast for Tencent from this year to 2027 to 350 billion yuan and increased its cloud revenue growth forecast. Goldman Sachs believes that Tencent's AI empowers all its business lines, benefiting from its unique WeChat ecosystem and global gaming assets. It maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent, raising the base case target price from HK$701 to HK$770, with a "Bull" case target price of HK$846.

Simultaneously, Goldman Sachs also raised its capital expenditure forecast for Alibaba for the next three years, significantly increasing it to 460 billion yuan, the highest market forecast. It also raised the 12-month target price for its US-listed shares by 14%, from $179 to $205; the target price for its Hong Kong-listed shares was also increased by 14%, from HK$174 to HK$199, maintaining a "Buy" rating. Supported by breakthroughs in AI models and diversified chip supply, Goldman Sachs raised Alibaba's cloud revenue year-on-year growth rates for the next three quarters to 31%, 38%, and 37%. Goldman Sachs pointed out that although Alibaba's recent profits may decline due to investments in immediate e-commerce or losses, the market should focus on the initial profit turnaround of the Taobao Tmall platform and the growth potential of international cloud business, viewing the stock price pullback as a buying opportunity.

The Hong Kong Tech 30 ETF (513160) closely tracks the Hang Seng Stock Connect China Technology Index, which monitors the performance of Mainland companies engaged in technology businesses listed in Hong Kong that are tradable through the Stock Connect. Its top ten holdings include several tech leaders such as SMIC, Kuaishou-W, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, and Xiaomi Group-W.

China Merchants Securities analysis believes that AI remains a clear theme in the Hong Kong stock market, and the internet sector will continue to benefit. Guotai Junan Securities and Haitong Securities expect the Hong Kong stock market to potentially hit new highs in the fourth quarter, pointing out that the deepening "AI empowerment" narrative and policy support will boost fundamentals, coupled with the return of foreign capital and sustained inflows of southbound funds, indicating a clear trend of improvement in capital flows.

CITIC Securities stated in a research report that since October, companies like OpenAI, xAI, and Google have successively updated their large model capabilities, with industry innovation continuing to advance, which consistently benefits the implementation of AI applications. Domestic AI applications are expected to face an inflection point opportunity. At the same time, changes in the external environment combined with domestic policy support suggest that future support for the localization and AI integration of applications may become more significant. Compared to the domestic market, overseas markets lead in terms of technological progress, payment environment, business models, and market space. They are optimistic about the investment opportunities for domestic companies in the出海 of AI applications, leveraging their product and engineering capabilities, innovation, and iteration speed.

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