Stablecoins in the crypto world appear as an unshakable anchor. They rose amidst market turmoil and an extreme craving for "stability," growing into a critical bridge connecting traditional finance with the digital world. However, a question concerning their destiny has emerged: how long can the business红利期 of stablecoins—this seemingly solid gold mine—continue to be mined? This is not a simple question of duration, but a grand narrative concerning technology, regulation, monetary sovereignty, and the future form of finance.

I. The Birth Context and Functional Mission of Stablecoins

The emergence of stablecoins was no accident; it was a desperate hand extended by the native cryptocurrency ecosystem towards the traditional world for survival.

Born from a thirst for survival in volatile markets. Bitcoin's dream was to be a "peer-to-peer electronic cash system," but its extreme price volatility caused it to fail severely in the two core functions of money: a unit of account and a medium of exchange. The frenzy of 2017 and the crypto winter of 2018 made the market deeply realize that a financial system without intrinsic stability is like a ship sailing in stormy seas without ballast, liable to capsize at any moment. Whether it was traders seeking temporary safe havens or decentralized finance protocols needing reliable units of account, the market urgently called for a tool that possessed both the global, instant nature of cryptocurrencies and price stability. Stablecoins emerged to meet this need.

The core functions of stablecoins can be summarized into three points.

First, a medium of exchange and settlement tool. They are the "lifeblood" circulating within cryptocurrency exchanges, greatly reducing the friction and complexity of crypto-to-crypto trading. In the field of cross-border payments and remittances, they have demonstrated the potential to challenge the traditional SWIFT system, enabling near-real-time, low-cost global value transfer.

Second, a store of value and safe-haven asset. When markets plummet, traders can quickly convert volatile assets into stablecoins, "parking" their capital to preserve principal and wait for new opportunities. In a pure crypto ecosystem lacking traditional safe-haven assets, this is a crucial safety valve.

Third, the foundational asset of the DeFi world. In the entire DeFi "Lego" system, stablecoins are the core raw material for almost all building blocks. They are the collateral in lending protocols, the main component of liquidity pools in decentralized exchanges, and the interest-bearing assets in yield farming.

It is these rigid demands that propelled stablecoins from non-existence to explosive growth, forming today's massive market worth hundreds of billions of dollars and ushering in its first, and most glorious,红利期.

II. Analysis of Similarities and Differences Between Stablecoins and CBDCs

However, as stablecoins advance triumphantly, another force is quietly rising at the national level—Central Bank Digital Currencies. They share similar forms, both appearing as digital tokens, but their genes are vastly different, like wild twin flowers flourishing in the field versus a towering tree meticulously cultivated by the state.

Similarities lie in their digital form and pursuit of efficiency. Both are based on blockchain or similar Distributed Ledger Technology, aiming to enhance payment efficiency, reduce transaction costs, and adapt to an increasingly digital economic landscape. They both attempt to address some pain points in the traditional financial system, such as the delays and high costs of cross-border payments.

However, their differences are fundamental, determining their distinct development paths and destinies.

Decentralized trust vs. National sovereign credit. This is the core distinction. Fiat-collateralized stablecoins represented by USDT/USDC derive their credit ultimately from the US dollar reserves held in custodian banks, constituting an "on-chain mapping" of traditional credit. In contrast, the credit of a CBDC stems directly from the central bank's balance sheet; it is a digital extension of national sovereign credit, has legal tender status, and its credit rating is unmatched by any private institution.

Market-driven compliance博弈 vs. Top-down design and legal mandate. Stablecoins are issued and operated by private enterprises, their rules shaped by the market and tech community, constantly navigating and博弈 in the global regulatory gray areas. CBDCs are designed, issued, and regulated by central banks, embedded from birth within the existing legal and regulatory framework, and carry the force of law.

The trade-off between anonymity and transparency. Stablecoins offer a degree of pseudonymity; while transaction records are publicly viewable, identities can be separated from addresses. CBDCs inherently face the dilemma of "controlled anonymity" in their design—central banks must balance protecting public privacy with meeting regulatory needs like AML/CFT and monetary policy implementation, potentially leading to a centralized, more controllable financial surveillance capability.

An external "faucet" vs. An internal policy tool. The issuance of stablecoins is primarily determined by market demand, acting like a "faucet"游离 outside traditional monetary policy. Their large-scale flows could impact the financial stability and monetary policy transmission of smaller economies. CBDCs are themselves direct carriers of monetary policy tools; central banks can use them to implement interest rate policies or conduct structural adjustments more precisely and efficiently.

III. In-depth Analysis of Chinese and US Approaches to Stablecoins

Facing the new propositions of stablecoins and CBDCs, China and the US, based on their respective financial systems, regulatory philosophies, and global strategies, have demonstrated distinctly different response models.

The US model can be summarized as "Market First, Regulatory Incorporation, Dual-Track Parallel." As a country with strong financial markets and tech innovation capabilities, the US has shown remarkable tolerance towards stablecoins. Compliant stablecoins like USDC have gained preliminary recognition from regulators, and Congress is actively promoting legislation aimed at bringing stablecoin issuance under a federal regulatory framework, legitimizing them.

Simultaneously, the US has passed an anti-CBDC bill, clarifying the short-term trend. While research on a Digital Dollar continues, the approach is cautious, focusing more on studying its long-term impact on the financial system, privacy, and the international role of the dollar. The US strategy likely involves allowing private stablecoins to coexist and compete with a potential future digital dollar, forming a more dynamic digital currency ecosystem anchored to dollar assets, thereby further consolidating the global hegemony of the US dollar.

China's model is "Sovereign Leadership, Gradual Development, Ecological Closed Loop." China has adopted a clear and resolute path: firmly prohibiting any private institution from issuing stablecoins within mainland China, viewing them as a potential threat to financial security and monetary sovereignty. Concurrently, China is fully advancing the development and pilot programs of the digital yuan, making it a frontrunner among global CBDCs. The strategic positioning of the e-CNY is very clear: primarily serving domestic retail payment scenarios, enhancing payment efficiency, strengthening the effectiveness of monetary policy, and providing a new technological pillar for the internationalization of the Renminbi. China is building a digital financial ecosystem centered around the digital yuan, with various financial institutions as nodes, entirely under sovereign control. Regarding offshore stablecoins, China maintains high vigilance, strictly restricting their circulation and use within the domestic market. The launch of the Digital Yuan International Operation Center by the PBOC in September 2025, including the cross-border payment platform, blockchain service platform, and digital asset platform, can be said to cover almost all the functions of stablecoins.

These two models reflect the intense clash between the philosophies of "market-driven innovation" and "state-led security" in the digital currency era, also foreshadowing a potential fragmentation in the future global digital currency landscape.

IV. The Roles of Stablecoins and CBDCs in the Future Blockchain Economy

Even facing competition from CBDCs, stablecoins will continue to play a key role in the blockchain economic system for a considerable time to come, but their functions will evolve and deepen.

In a typical token economy ecosystem, the payment and circulation function is as crucial as the circulatory system. Service tokens and equity/ governance tokens respectively handle resource access within the ecosystem and governance/decentralization, while payment tokens focus on the unit of account and medium of exchange. In this domain, stablecoins and CBDCs constitute two technical paths with distinct advantages.

Stablecoins, especially mainstream compliant ones, have the core advantage of inheriting the native openness and global nature of blockchain. Operating on permissionless public chains, they can be seamlessly integrated into various DeFi applications and global trade scenarios, providing excellent value anchors and trading pairs for service and equity tokens, greatly enhancing capital flow efficiency. However, their credit relies on the reserve management of commercial institutions, posing potential credit risks and regulatory uncertainty.

CBDCs represent the digital extension of state credit. Their greatest advantage lies in their legal tender status and absolute legal guarantee, providing the highest stability and payment finality. In domestic payment scenarios with clear legal frameworks and scenarios interfacing with the traditional financial system, CBDCs have unparalleled credibility. However, their design is often more centralized, potentially facing limitations in cross-border flows and compatibility with certain decentralized protocols.

In summary, the relationship is not simply one of substitution but rather a complementary structure. Stablecoins excel at driving an open, innovative global crypto-economic network, while CBDCs focus on consolidating state-led digital financial infrastructure. In the future complex world of multiple chains and multiple economies, they are likely to coexist and develop synergistically over the long term based on different application scenarios and regulatory requirements, jointly supporting a prosperous and diversified token economy ecosystem.

V. Perhaps Stablecoins Are Not Irreplaceable

Returning to the initial question: How long will the business红利期 of stablecoins last? Perhaps it stands at a historical inflection point, dependent on the evolution speed of three key variables.

1. The speed and stringency of global regulatory implementation. Once major economies establish strict regulatory frameworks, the红利 of "wild growth" for stablecoins will end, entering a mature competition phase characterized by compliance and thinning profits.

2. The maturity and adoption level of major economies' CBDCs. If mainstream CBDCs like a digital dollar or digital euro are officially launched and made available to non-residents in the future, they could directly replace stablecoins in many scenarios with their unparalleled credit advantage.

3. The evolution of blockchain technology itself and cross-chain interoperability. If superior decentralized solutions for a unit of account emerge that do not rely on price-stable assets as collateral, the foundational status of stablecoins would also be shaken.

Stablecoins are a historical product of the gap between the failure of the old system and the incomplete establishment of the new. They have successfully completed their initial mission as a "bridge" and "catalyst," enlightening the market about the need for digital stable value. As sovereign digital power enters the arena and technology iterates, the "essential" aura of stablecoins will likely gradually fade. They may ultimately evolve into an important option within a future diversified digital asset landscape, rather than the sole core.

Their红利期 is a window of opportunity granted by the era. This window will not slam shut suddenly, but will gradually narrow as the sovereign digital tide approaches. Perhaps we need to lift our heads from the short-sighted pursuit of红利 and contemplate how to build deeper value, better compliance, and more sustainable ecological models. As the saying goes, in a vast and changing world, "the only constant is change."