Starting last Saturday, the crypto market began a new wave of upward movement, with Bitcoin and Ethereum showing significant gains, driving the overall market higher. Bitcoin broke through $115,000, with a nearly 3% gain in 24 hours; Ethereum also broke through $4,200, rising over 6% in 24 hours. The total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market in the past 24 hours reached $430 million, with short positions liquidated at $356 million.

What favorable factors are driving this cryptocurrency recovery and rise? Have the previous factors suppressing the market disappeared? Is the market about to resume its upward trend?

1. The market has recuperated for half a month after the October 11th crash liquidation.
   Starting last Saturday, the crypto market began a clear rebound and upward trend. This morning, Bitcoin quickly rose, briefly breaking through $115,000 to report $115,005.29, a 24-hour increase of 2.93%; Ethereum also rose significantly, briefly breaking through $4,200 to report $4,201.44, a 24-hour increase of 6.27%. Coinglass data shows that the total liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market in the past 24 hours reached $430 million, of which, long positions were liquidated at $73.8677 million, and short positions were liquidated at $356 million.

   Half a month has passed since the October 11th crash liquidation event. The crypto market has recovered its losses and returned to previous levels. The market's recuperation may have digested the panic caused by the crash event, and the market suppression factors triggered by the "black swan in the coin circle" are gradually diminishing. It might only be a matter of time before the crypto market regains its previous strength or even hits new highs.

2. Easing of Sino-US trade tensions
   From October 25th to 26th, the trade teams of China and the US began a new round of two-day Sino-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. After the consultations, Li Chenggang, China's International Trade Representative and Vice Minister of Commerce, told reporters from Chinese and foreign media that the two sides had reached preliminary consensus on properly resolving several important economic and trade issues of mutual concern, and the next step would be to complete their respective domestic approval procedures. Li Chenggang said: "In the past month or so, there have been some shocks and fluctuations in Sino-US economic and trade relations, which have attracted global attention." Since the Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks in May this year, the Chinese side has strictly followed the consensus reached in multiple phone calls between the heads of state of China and the US, faithfully and seriously implemented the consensus arrangements reached in the economic and trade consultations, and carefully nurtured the hard-won and relatively stable Sino-US economic and trade cooperative relationship. "These shocks and fluctuations are not what the Chinese side wants to see." After the talks, US Treasury Secretary Besant said in an interview that after the two-day talks in Kuala Lumpur, the two sides reached a "very substantive framework agreement," and the US side "is no longer considering" imposing 100% tariffs on China.

   Affected by the weekend trade situation news, market risk appetite increased. Spot gold and silver opened lower with a gap on Monday, while WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil continued to strengthen after gapping higher. The three major US stock index futures all rose. Stimulated by macroeconomic factors, the crypto market also showed a clear upward trend.

   After the latest economic and trade consultations between China and the US, trade tensions have eased, giving the market some breathing room, which to some extent has influenced the rise of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

3. US CPI data delayed, Fed rate cut imminent
   On the evening of October 24th, affected by the US government "shutdown," the US September core CPI data was delayed. The monthly rate of seasonally adjusted core CPI in September was 0.2%, against an expectation of 0.30% and a previous value of 0.30%. The unadjusted US CPI annual rate for September recorded 3%, the highest since January 2025, with the increase slightly lower than the market's general expectation of 3.1%.

   Huatai Securities said that the US September CPI slowed more than expected, mainly affected by an unexpected slowdown in the housing rent component. Against the backdrop of the ongoing government shutdown and a cooling job market, a Fed rate cut in October is highly likely, and a December rate cut is also the baseline scenario. CICC research report stated that this inflation data is relatively mild, supporting the Fed to continue cutting rates. Given the downside risks in the labor market, CICC expects the Fed may cut rates by 25 basis points each in October and December. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in October is 96.7%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 3.3%. The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December is 94.8%.

   After the release of the September CPI data, the market increased its bets on a Fed rate cut in October. On October 29th, US local time, the Fed will announce its latest interest rate decision, and it is almost certain that the Fed will cut rates again. The CPI data and market expectations for a Fed rate cut are also one of the driving factors for the recent rebound in the crypto market.

4. Whale accounts frequent activity, going long on crypto market
   During the continuous rise of the crypto market, large on-chain transactions by whales occurred frequently. On-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa) monitored that the "100% win rate mysterious whale" added another 173.6 BTC in the early hours of this morning. Currently, this whale holds long positions worth $338 million, with floating profits exceeding $17 million. The whale's current holdings include: Bitcoin long positions of 1,482.9, worth $165 million, with an average entry price of $110,680.1; Ethereum long positions of 40,043.81, worth $168 million, with an average entry price of $3,929.76. In addition, the address 0xc2A associated with the October 11th insider whale, which recently profited from both long and short positions, opened a 5x ETH long position again last Friday, holding 7375.45 ETH, worth $28.42 million.

   The continuous large on-chain transactions by whales indicate the recovery and warming of market investment sentiment. The increasing long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum by whales have stimulated the continuous rise in spot prices in the crypto market and also indicate the market's betting direction on the future market trend.

5. Bitcoin ETF net inflow indicates market trend gradually warming up
   Farside monitoring data shows that last week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs had a cumulative net inflow of $446.3 million. Treasury Edge released a chart stating that the largest Ethereum ETF, BlackRock's ETHA, holds Ethereum worth $15.5 billion. Glassnode said that net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs tend to concentrate near local market lows, accompanied by fading market sentiment. When the fund flow turns positive, historical patterns usually indicate that the initial stage of demand recovery and trend warming has arrived.

   The turn to net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETF funds indicates that investor demand for Bitcoin is picking up again, and the crypto market will also warm up, thereby driving price rebounds.

6. Trump pardons CZ and appoints crypto-friendly CFTC chairman
   The White House last Thursday stated that Trump had pardoned convicted Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ). White House Press Secretary Levitt said in a statement that Trump "exercised his constitutional power to pardon Changpeng Zhao, who was prosecuted in the Biden administration's cryptocurrency crackdown." Trump said, "The reason for pardoning Binance founder CZ is that he is not guilty and is a victim persecuted by the Biden administration."

   Last Friday, Trump appointed Michael Selig, chief counsel of the US SEC's Crypto Asset Special Working Group, as chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to address the growth of the crypto industry. Michael Selig subsequently posted on social media, saying he was honored to be nominated by President Trump to serve as the 16th chairman of the CFTC. The US financial market is about to usher in a great golden age and will see abundant new opportunities. He promised to spare no effort in promoting the healthy operation of the commodity market, fostering freedom, competition, and innovation, and assisting President Trump in making the US a global cryptocurrency center.

   Trump's pardon of Binance founder Changpeng Zhao and the appointment of a new CFTC chairman friendly to the crypto industry indicate that the US government will spare no effort to support the development of the crypto industry in the US at the policy and regulatory levels. The continuous favorable US regulatory policies have also contributed to the rebound and rise of the crypto market.

7. How is the market betting on the next trend?
   BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said in an interview with CNBC that the chain reaction after the October 11th crypto market deleveraging event is still ongoing, but these phenomena are about to end because the contract open interests of both Bitcoin and Ethereum are at historical lows, and from a technical perspective, both are turning positive. Therefore, he believes that cryptocurrencies will also usher in a wave of upward movement before the end of the year. JPMorgan recently stated that it might accept cryptocurrencies as collateral in the future, which is very helpful for market confidence.

   Crypto Quant analyst Axel posted on social media that the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit (30-day change) has rebounded from -12% to -6%, indicating that selling pressure is weakening and the market is buying the dip. Although the current proportion of profitable coins is still lower than the level one month ago, the decline has narrowed significantly—negative momentum is weakening.

   Galaxy Digital Head of Research Alex Thorn said in an interview that the Bitcoin bull market remains solid, but the market is at a "critical node" where sentiment can shift quickly. In the long run, growing institutional demand provides solid support, and the market is entering the "post $100,000 era." He also believes that Bitcoin is gradually breaking away from the historical four-year cycle and building a more stable foundation, manifested by decreased volatility, increased institutional holdings, and slowed passive absorption.

   BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said in an interview with cryptocurrency entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano on Thursday: "Bitcoin has broken its typical four-year cycle pattern, which suggests a longer cycle is forming."

   VanEck stated that Bitcoin's correction in October is a mid-cycle adjustment, not the arrival of a bear market. Leverage levels have returned to normal, on-chain activity is rising, and liquidity continues to drive this cycle.

   Standard Chartered predicts that by the end of this year, the Bitcoin price could reach $200,000.