On November 5, the U.S. government shutdown broke a record, driving up safe-haven sentiment and causing gold prices to fluctuate and strengthen. By the close, COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3,990.40 per ounce. At the end of the Asian market session, the China Gold ETF (518850) fell 0.43%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) rose 0.94%.

On the news front, the U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 36th day, breaking the previous record of 35 days set from late 2018 to early 2019, making it the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The Congressional Budget Office recently stated that if the shutdown lasts for six weeks, economic losses could reach $11 billion, with the annual growth rate of the U.S. real GDP expected to decline by 1 to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter, severely impacting areas such as aviation safety and food relief.

A CITIC Securities research report noted that, based on historical patterns, the long-term price trend of gold is closely related to geopolitical and economic conditions. The upward momentum of gold prices typically stems from geopolitical turmoil and weak U.S. economic performance, while downside risks can be summarized into five categories: an improving U.S. economy, a hawkish Federal Reserve, strict U.S. fiscal discipline, easing geopolitical tensions, and global central banks selling gold. Currently, these risks are not significant. In the long term, gold continues to benefit from the expansion of global liquidity and increased preference due to deglobalization risks. Recent sharp fluctuations in gold prices have been mainly driven by Sino-U.S. trade relations and expectations of interest rate cuts. Looking ahead to next year, multiple factors are still likely to drive gold prices upward.