On December 30 local time, the three major US stock indices closed slightly lower, while the precious metals market once again experienced turbulence. The spot price of silver surged over 5%, briefly touching the $78 mark during the session, continuing its recent high-volatility trend. The latest meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve revealed internal disagreements on the path of interest rate cuts, adding market uncertainty along with former President Trump's comments regarding the Fed chair nominee.

US Stocks Weak, Divergence on Rate Cut Path

The US stock market performed weakly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.20%, the Nasdaq Composite dropping 0.24%, and the S&P 500 declining 0.14%. This marks the third consecutive day of declines for the three major indices. Large-cap technology stocks showed mixed performance. META rose 1.11% after announcing its acquisition of the general AI agent developer Butterfly Effect Company. Amazon, Microsoft, and Google saw modest gains, while Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla all recorded declines, reflecting investor caution amid thin year-end trading.

Regarding Chinese concept stocks, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index edged down 0.27%, with individual stocks showing mixed movements. EHang Intelligent and ECARX Technology rose over 5%, with Baidu Group and Tiger Brokers following the upward trend. However, Bilibili and Alibaba saw slight declines, while overall market sentiment remained stable. European stock markets, in contrast, closed higher across the board, with the UK's FTSE 100 Index and Germany's DAX Index rising, diverging from the US market performance.

The market's caution largely stems from confusion over the future policy path. The newly released December Fed meeting minutes revealed significant disagreements among policymakers. Although most officials believe that further rate cuts would be appropriate as long as inflation continues to decline, they remain hesitant about "when to cut" and "by how much." Some even favor holding steady "for a period" after the December rate cut. This uncertainty has led traders to scale back rate cut expectations, with the market's focus shifting from anticipating three cuts in early December to possibly only two in 2026.

Moreover, policymakers face the looming prospect of personnel changes. Former US President Trump has publicly stated that he expects to announce a successor to Fed Chair Powell in January next year and has repeatedly criticized Powell's policies. Although the market has not yet priced in an extreme scenario like "the Fed Chair being dismissed," such persistent political noise undoubtedly casts a shadow over the monetary policy outlook for 2026.

Silver's "Roller Coaster," Commodity Markets See Divergent Trends

In stark contrast to the stock market's calm, commodity markets experienced dramatic fluctuations, particularly in silver. After plunging approximately 9% on December 29, silver prices staged a strong rebound on the 30th, with intraday gains exceeding 8% and closing nearly 6% higher. This "epic" volatility has placed the precious metals market in the global spotlight.

Analysis generally attributes this sharp volatility more to technical and trading factors. After silver prices accumulated substantial gains during the year, year-end profit-taking, exchange-mandated margin requirement increases forcing some leveraged traders to close positions, and typically thin year-end market liquidity intertwined, collectively amplifying price swings. Analysts vividly noted that the previous sharp drop was a technical correction after the rally became "overstretched." However, the fundamental factors supporting its long-term rise—such as the US dollar's trajectory, geopolitical uncertainty, and genuine physical supply shortages—have not fundamentally changed.

Other commodities followed different paths. Gold saw a moderate rise after experiencing similar pullbacks, while international oil prices closed slightly lower. Regarding base metals, after copper prices accumulated gains of over 44% in 2025, although some institutions warn of potential periodic pullbacks, its long-term demand prospects in areas like power infrastructure and artificial intelligence remain widely viewed favorably.