Pioneer Investment Group (Vanguard) economist Joseph Davis and his team forecasted in December 2024 that the unemployment rate for 2025 would be 4.4%, with an average monthly increase of approximately 97,500 new jobs, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 3% for the year.

Among the 73 economists surveyed by *The Wall Street Journal*, this was the most accurate set of predictions.

Recently, the team released its forecast for the U.S. economy in 2026.

In terms of economic growth, the U.S. economy is expected to accelerate in 2026, with GDP growing by approximately 2.25%. This growth will be driven primarily by two factors: increased investment, which extends beyond AI, and fiscal policy stimulus, particularly the tax reduction measures in the "Big and Beautiful" bill, most of which will officially take effect in 2026.

Regarding employment, the weak job market performance from the previous year is expected to rebound in 2026. Reasons for this include increased corporate investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and other projects, as well as renewed labor demand driven by economic growth. The unemployment rate is projected to decrease from 4.6% in November 2025 to 4.2%.

On the inflation front, strong growth combined with the ongoing impact of tariffs may also bring side effects, potentially preventing inflation from falling back to the Federal Reserve's 2% target level. The team expects the year-over-year increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy, to be 2.6% in 2026, only slightly lower than the 2.8% recorded in September of the previous year.