The Essence of Ultra-Short-Term Trading

  • 2025-07-17

I define ultra-short-term trading as T+1 or T+2—buying today and selling tomorrow or the day after. The essence is chasing stocks that can surge and hit consecutive limit-ups to achieve rapid profits. The operational process is: review the market, select stocks, set a plan, buy or pass, and exit the next day if the stock doesn’t hit the limit-up. Repeat this cycle.  

 

So, what is the true essence of ultra-short-term trading? It boils down to three words: don’t lose. Some might laugh and say, “How is that possible?” Let me explain. Here, “don’t lose” means avoiding major drawdowns. How do you avoid major drawdowns? Follow these three rules:  

 

1. **Quick in, quick out**. You buy today and sell tomorrow. Theoretically, the worst-case loss is 30 points (for limit-up plays on the main board; I don’t trade 20cm limit-ups, so this is my limit). What are the odds of encountering this? Maybe you catch three consecutive limit-ups for a 50-point gain, then take a -30-point hit—you’re still profitable. So don’t worry; as long as you trade quickly, there’s no major drawdown risk.  

 

2. **Avoid potentially risky stocks**. For example, stocks that have already risen significantly and have high turnover for days, or those with earnings risks, fraud risks, etc. In short, avoid anything with negative potential. Skip it today, or take a break for a couple of days.  

 

3. **Set strict stop-loss and take-profit rules and stick to them**. My usual stop-loss is -10 points, and take-profit is 20-30 points, but I start scaling out at 10-15 points. This depends on the situation. For instance, with Jin’an International hitting a one-word limit-up yesterday, I didn’t reduce my position at 20 points. Today, I scaled out at 21 points profit—no regrets about not waiting for 30 points. A calm mindset is the foundation of profitability.  

 

Beyond controlling drawdowns, here are a few more points to note:  

 

1. **Develop your own strategy**. Focus on the method you’re most familiar with and can consistently profit from, such as weak-to-strong reversals, first limit-ups, 1-to-2 transitions, end-of-day plays, first pullback of the leading stock, second wave of the leader, or oversold rebounds. Stick to and refine your strategy—don’t jump around.  

 

2. **Find your rhythm**. This rhythm reflects your understanding of the market. For example, different phases of the sentiment cycle suit different traders. Some profit easily when new concepts emerge, others excel during catch-up phases, and some specialize in oversold rebounds. Identify your profitable phases over the years, analyze them, and solidify your rhythm.  

 

3. **Learn to rest**. True masters of ultra-short-term or short-term trading know when to rest—after big wins, after two consecutive losses, or when anticipating high-risk market conditions. Those who don’t rest and trade daily are either like me (writing articles and refining quant models), institutional traders, or mostly just retail losers. Forcing trades often leads to mistakes. Only trade when you’re confident, and wait for opportunities instead of trading daily. Statistically, daily trading has a loss probability >50%, rising to >80% in bad markets—unless you’re a genius.  

 

In summary: To succeed in ultra-short-term trading, prevent drawdowns, learn to rest, and constantly reflect and improve.  

 

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